Soulpancake: Life as coincidence
I want to start out by clarifying the term "coincidence". "Coincidence," in this case, means something that happened only through chance. For example: if I roll a perfect die 5 times, and every time, the number 3 comes up, that is coincidence. If I am skeptical about this (as I should be, the odds being one in 7800), I can perform a variety of measurements to assure myself about the randomness of each throw. Assured of the randomness, I say "Coincidence."
If the die is weighted, then clearly it was not coincidence but by design that the number 3 came up so often.
The other thing to clarify is the term "Life." By "life" is meant intelligent life, like us, thinking about the ontology of being or whether free will overcomes fate and the like. Microbial life is great, but it doesn't do us much good in terms of conversation.
So did life arise like a string of 3s 6000 throws long, or was life deliberate, each die rotated to the correct value and carefully placed on the table?
Some maintain that there are so many stars (throws) and the requirements for intelligent life so few (sides) that life must exist out of necessity and that there is nothing special about it. Others say that the requirements for life are so many that the likelihood of its arrival through random processes is laughable.
Guess what. We can't know. Unless someone designs a universe (a planet might suffice for the initial phase) and waits for life to appear, we can't know if this will happen without outside intervention. We know we exist. We know that no one has shown up to say hi yet, so the latter option looks good.
The third option is that the low odds of intelligent life appearing are exactly balanced by the high number of places it could show up. Then the odds would favor the appearance of... about 1 planet with intelligent life.
But we still don't know the numbers, and we can't know them. If we had 200 planets with life evolving independently on each, we might be able to make a guess at what the requirements are for life and the probability of that happening on a given star.
So the question of whether life is a coincidence is ill posed. Give me a few hundred planets and a couple billions years and we can answer that question. Till then, how about "If life was not a coincidence, what would be the motive behind it?"
